Food price rises that haven’t arrived yet, and the EU budget summit that could make it worse

Those months coincide with EU leaders deciding the farm budget for 2028 to 2034, and Europe’s direction is out of step with the rest of the world. On 2 November the OECD reported that farm support passed $950 billion in 2025, up $121 billion in two years. Brussels, by contrast, proposes to ring-fence €300 billion for farmers, down from €386.6 billion in the current budget, and worth less again once inflation is counted. Irish farms are heavily exposed. Teagasc figures show direct payments made up 59% of average farm income in 2024, and 99% in 2023, the last year prices fell. On many cattle rearing farms, payments exceeded total income.

A smaller CAP will not push up food prices overnight, because payments do not set prices on the shelf. The risk lies in supply. Cutting support in real terms while margins are squeezed is likely to mean fewer farmers, less investment and less food produced over the next seven years. Europe would rely more on imports and be more exposed to swings in world prices, so the next food price spike would hit harder. Lower-income households, who spend 14 to 15% of their budget on food according to the ESRI, would feel it first.

EU leaders meet on 26 and 27 November. They should protect the real value of the farm budget and fund the research and advice that help farmers prepare for shocks. Otherwise, more of the cost now being carried on Irish farms is likely to end up in Irish shopping baskets.