Fertiliser
Fertiliser prices have dropped 51% since their peak in October 2022, which is welcome news for farmers. However, prices are still 38% higher than they were in 2020, so while relief is here, it's important to manage costs wisely.
Outlook: Fertiliser prices are stable at the moment, but they’re closely linked to natural gas prices, which can be unpredictable. Lower gas prices in 2024 have contributed to this stability. With subdued global growth (especially in China), this price should remain stable; however, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war could result in upward price pressures. Keep an eye on Europe’s winter temperatures too, as a mild winter could help keep prices down.
Feed
Feed prices have decreased by 31% since the January 2023 peak, though they remain 9% higher than in 2020. With record maize harvests in the US and ample supply forecasted, further price reductions are expected in the coming months.
Outlook: Ample supply to meet demand is forecast, plus record maize harvest in the US. This means further price decreases in feed prices should be realised in the coming months, which could provide some much-needed relief as we head into the winter-feeding period.
Electricity
While electricity prices have come down 29% since their peak in January 2023, they are still 59% higher than the 2020 average. Ireland, in particular, faces higher electricity prices compared to other EU countries.
Outlook: With stabilised gas prices, we should see further reductions in electricity costs in Ireland. However, Ireland is one of the EU’s highest-priced electricity markets, the drops may be slower here than elsewhere in Europe.
Green Diesel
Green diesel prices have fallen by 23% since their peak in June 2022, though they remain 53% higher than in 2020.
Outlook: Brent crude oil prices have been steadily declining since July 2024, and is now €20 a barrel below price 12 months ago. This means we shouldn't expect any major upward pressure on green diesel prices—unless, of course, there are sudden geopolitical shifts.
In Summary
Input prices have eased somewhat from their recent peaks, offering some breathing room for farmers. Fertiliser and feed, in particular, are showing positive trends, while electricity and green diesel prices remain higher than pre-2020 levels but are trending downwards. Keep an eye on global market developments and local conditions—such as the upcoming winter weather—to stay ahead of any potential price changes.
By keeping these insights in mind and planning accordingly, you’ll be better prepared to manage your input costs and protect your farm’s profitability in the months ahead.
| Input | % Below Peak | % Above 2020 Average | Current Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
Fertiliser | 51% | 38% | Stable for now, but watch global demand and gas prices. Winter weather in Europe could also impact prices. |
Feed | 31% | 9% | Price decreases expected due to ample supply and record maize harvest in the US. |
Electricity | 29% | 59% | Further decreases likely, but Ireland’s prices remain high compared to the EU average. |
Green Diesel | 23% | 53% | No upward pressure expected as oil prices fall, but geopolitical factors could affect prices. |
